Stake Ranked Episode 6 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#73 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Betclic#61 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
64%56%
UNiTY · 21 mapedge UNiTY +8%Betclic · 12 maps
AncientUNiTY pick
67%54%
UNiTY · 20 mapsedge UNiTY +13%Betclic · 9 maps
CacheBetclic pick
50%63%
UNiTY · 14 mapsedge Betclic +13%Betclic · 12 maps
AnubisBetclic ban
62%38%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge UNiTY +24%Betclic · 12 maps
Dust2UNiTY ban
55%75%
UNiTY · 16 mapsedge Betclic +20%Betclic · 4 maps
InfernoBetclic ban
62%50%
UNiTY · 17 mapsedge UNiTY +12%Betclic · 0 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
29%53%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge Betclic +24%Betclic · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanBetclic remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickBetclic take Cache
5. BanBetclic remove Anubis
6. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (64% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
UNiTY 66%Betclic 34%
The model gave 66% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
UNiTY 35%Betclic 65%
The model gave 65% on Betclic — the map was taken by Betclic.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
UNiTY 29%Betclic 71%
The model gave 71% on Betclic — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteBetclic · 59%
Series resultUNiTY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3