Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNAVI Junior pick
36%70%
UNiTY · 7 mapsedge NAVI Junior +34%NAVI Junior · 6 maps
AncientUNiTY pick
67%43%
UNiTY · 8 mapsedge UNiTY +24%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
AnubisUNiTY ban
38%44%
UNiTY · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +6%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
50%43%
UNiTY · 6 mapsedge UNiTY +7%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
50%29%
UNiTY · 4 mapsedge UNiTY +21%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
NukeUNiTY ban
40%33%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +7%NAVI Junior · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
38%50%
UNiTY · 4 mapsedge NAVI Junior +12%NAVI Junior · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Ancient
4. PickNAVI Junior take Mirage
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
6. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
DeciderCache (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
UNiTY 40%NAVI Junior 60%
The model gave 60% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
UNiTY 75%NAVI Junior 25%
The model gave 75% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 55%
Series resultUNiTY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2