Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNexus ban
69%50%
UNiTY · 9 mapsedge UNiTY +19%Nexus · 2 maps
AnubisUNiTY ban
44%67%
UNiTY · 5 mapsedge Nexus +23%Nexus · 5 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
45%50%
UNiTY · 7 mapsedge Nexus +5%Nexus · 2 maps
InfernoUNiTY pick
44%50%
UNiTY · 5 mapsedge Nexus +6%Nexus · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
36%50%
UNiTY · 7 mapsedge Nexus +14%Nexus · 2 maps
CacheUNiTY ban
38%60%
UNiTY · 4 mapsedge Nexus +22%Nexus · 1 map
OverpassNexus pick
60%63%
UNiTY · 1 mapnearly even -3%Nexus · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
2. BanNexus remove Ancient
3. PickUNiTY take Inferno
4. PickNexus take Overpass
5. BanNexus remove Dust2
6. BanUNiTY remove Cache
DeciderMirage (36% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
UNiTY 72%Nexus 28%
The model gave 72% on UNiTY — the map was taken by Nexus.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
UNiTY 34%Nexus 66%
The model gave 66% on Nexus — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Cacheprediction missed16:14
UNiTY 29%Nexus 71%
The model gave 71% on Nexus — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 69%
Series resultUNiTY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3