NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · win 2:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PsychoFace pick
43%50%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge PsychoFace +7%PsychoFace · 2 maps
AncientUNiTY ban
38%50%
UNiTY · 4 mapsedge PsychoFace +12%PsychoFace · 0 maps
MirageUNiTY pick
57%60%
UNiTY · 3 mapsnearly even -3%PsychoFace · 1 map
AnubisPsychoFace ban
50%40%
UNiTY · 2 mapsedge UNiTY +10%PsychoFace · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +10%PsychoFace · 2 maps
OverpassUNiTY ban
50%67%
UNiTY · 0 mapsedge PsychoFace +17%PsychoFace · 2 maps
InfernoPsychoFace ban
60%50%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +10%PsychoFace · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Overpass
2. BanPsychoFace remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Mirage
4. PickPsychoFace take Dust2
5. BanPsychoFace remove Anubis
6. BanUNiTY remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
UNiTY 63%PsychoFace 37%
The model gave 63% on UNiTY — the map was taken by PsychoFace.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
UNiTY 40%PsychoFace 60%
The model gave 60% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
UNiTY 38%PsychoFace 62%
The model gave 63% on PsychoFace — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Model check result
Model favoritePsychoFace · 59%
Series resultUNiTY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3