NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TNC#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY ban
43%50%
UNiTY · 3 mapsedge TNC +7%TNC · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%40%
UNiTY · 3 mapsnearly even +3%TNC · 1 map
NukeUNiTY ban
50%57%
UNiTY · 0 mapsedge TNC +7%TNC · 3 maps
AnubisUNiTY pick
60%60%
UNiTY · 1 mapnearly even +0%TNC · 1 map
MirageTNC pick
50%50%
UNiTY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%TNC · 0 maps
DefaultTNC ban
60%50%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +10%TNC · 0 maps
InfernoTNC ban
60%50%
UNiTY · 1 mapedge UNiTY +10%TNC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUNiTY remove Nuke
2. BanTNC remove Inferno
3. PickUNiTY take Anubis
4. PickTNC take Mirage
5. BanTNC remove Default
6. BanUNiTY remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (43% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
UNiTY 53%TNC 47%
The model gave 53% on UNiTY — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Ancientprediction correct16:19
UNiTY 40%TNC 60%
The model gave 60% on TNC — the map was taken by TNC.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
UNiTY 50%TNC 50%
The model gave 50% on UNiTY — the map was taken by TNC.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 51%
Series resultTNC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3