WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisUPGRADE pick
54%40%
UPGRADE · 20 mapsedge UPGRADE +14%flacons · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
53%50%
UPGRADE · 15 mapsnearly even +3%flacons · 2 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge flacons +12%flacons · 0 maps
Ancientflacons pick
64%50%
UPGRADE · 7 mapsedge UPGRADE +14%flacons · 0 maps
Cacheflacons ban
33%40%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge flacons +7%flacons · 1 map
MirageUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge flacons +12%flacons · 2 maps
Infernoflacons ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%flacons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
2. Banflacons remove Inferno
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. Pickflacons take Ancient
5. Banflacons remove Cache
6. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:0
UPGRADE 61%flacons 39%
The model gave 61% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
UPGRADE 56%flacons 44%
The model gave 56% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 76%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2