Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisUPGRADE pick
60%60%
UPGRADE · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 1 map
Dust2UPGRADE ban
42%38%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsnearly even +4%Illyrians · 4 maps
MirageIllyrians pick
43%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge Illyrians +7%Illyrians · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%67%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsnearly even -4%Illyrians · 2 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
44%50%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge Illyrians +6%Illyrians · 0 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Illyrians +12%Illyrians · 0 maps
InfernoIllyrians ban
57%60%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Illyrians · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. BanUPGRADE remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (63% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
UPGRADE 40%Illyrians 60%
The model gave 60% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
UPGRADE 53%Illyrians 47%
The model gave 53% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 63%
Series resultIllyrians 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2