CIS Esports League CyberClash Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#74 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lavked pick
53%53%
UPGRADE · 13 mapsnearly even +0%Lavked · 26 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
57%50%
UPGRADE · 17 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%Lavked · 12 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
38%41%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsnearly even -3%Lavked · 25 maps
Nukepossible decider
42%43%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsnearly even -1%Lavked · 19 maps
AncientLavked ban
64%43%
UPGRADE · 7 mapsedge UPGRADE +21%Lavked · 19 maps
InfernoLavked ban
57%33%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +24%Lavked · 8 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
33%40%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge Lavked +7%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickLavked take Dust2
5. BanLavked remove Ancient
6. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (42% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
UPGRADE 47%Lavked 53%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
UPGRADE 60%Lavked 40%
The model gave 60% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 67%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2