WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisUPGRADE pick
56%50%
UPGRADE · 14 mapsedge UPGRADE +6%Refresher · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
42%50%
UPGRADE · 8 mapsedge Refresher +8%Refresher · 0 maps
NukeRefresher pick
36%50%
UPGRADE · 7 mapsedge Refresher +14%Refresher · 0 maps
AncientRefresher ban
67%50%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge UPGRADE +17%Refresher · 0 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Refresher +12%Refresher · 0 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
38%50%
UPGRADE · 4 mapsedge Refresher +12%Refresher · 0 maps
InfernoRefresher ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%Refresher · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
2. BanRefresher remove Ancient
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickRefresher take Nuke
5. BanRefresher remove Inferno
6. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (42% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
UPGRADE 39%Refresher 61%
The model gave 61% on Refresher — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Anubisprediction correct13:0
UPGRADE 58%Refresher 42%
The model gave 58% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 73%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2