WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#74 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
59%70%
UPGRADE · 18 mapsedge Virtus.pro +11%Virtus.pro · 16 maps
AnubisUPGRADE pick
52%42%
UPGRADE · 21 mapedge UPGRADE +10%Virtus.pro · 8 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
38%46%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge Virtus.pro +8%Virtus.pro · 9 maps
MirageUPGRADE ban
44%69%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +25%Virtus.pro · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%80%
UPGRADE · 9 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
33%57%
UPGRADE · 5 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%Virtus.pro · 10 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
57%50%
UPGRADE · 3 mapsedge UPGRADE +7%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Mirage
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
4. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
6. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
DeciderAncient (62% / 80%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
UPGRADE 45%Virtus.pro 55%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
UPGRADE 24%Virtus.pro 76%
The model gave 76% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 56%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2