GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
UPGRADE#64 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xcity#224 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUPGRADE pick
60%40%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +20%Xcity · 1 map
AnubisXcity ban
67%50%
UPGRADE · 2 mapsedge UPGRADE +17%Xcity · 0 maps
CacheXcity pick
40%40%
UPGRADE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Xcity · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
UPGRADE · 1 mapnearly even +0%Xcity · 1 map
InfernoXcity ban
60%40%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge UPGRADE +20%Xcity · 1 map
NukeUPGRADE ban
33%50%
UPGRADE · 2 mapsedge Xcity +17%Xcity · 0 maps
Dust2UPGRADE ban
40%50%
UPGRADE · 1 mapedge Xcity +10%Xcity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUPGRADE remove Dust2
2. BanXcity remove Anubis
3. PickUPGRADE take Ancient
4. PickXcity take Cache
5. BanXcity remove Inferno
6. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
UPGRADE 67%Xcity 33%
The model gave 67% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by Xcity.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
UPGRADE 43%Xcity 57%
The model gave 57% on Xcity — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
UPGRADE 67%Xcity 33%
The model gave 67% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Model check result
Model favoriteUPGRADE · 66%
Series resultUPGRADE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3