ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
UR#376 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Haunted House#236 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultHaunted House pick
40%40%
UR · 1 mapnearly even +0%Haunted House · 1 map
MirageUR ban
50%50%
UR · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Haunted House · 2 maps
NukeHaunted House ban
50%33%
UR · 0 mapsedge UR +17%Haunted House · 2 maps
Dust2UR pick
50%40%
UR · 0 mapsedge UR +10%Haunted House · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUR remove Mirage
2. BanHaunted House remove Nuke
3. PickUR take Dust2
4. PickHaunted House take Default
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
UR 47%Haunted House 53%
The model gave 53% on Haunted House — the map was taken by Haunted House.
Model check result
Model favoriteHaunted House · 60%
Series resultHaunted House 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1