NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
75%43%
Ursa · 4 mapsedge Ursa +32%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%38%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge Ursa +19%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
43%33%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge Ursa +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
43%40%
Ursa · 3 mapsnearly even +3%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT pick
50%29%
Ursa · 0 mapsedge Ursa +21%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
43%50%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
AncientUrsa ban
50%60%
Ursa · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Ancient
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
3. PickUrsa take Dust2
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Anubis
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
6. BanUrsa remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (57% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Ursa 69%HYPERSPIRIT 31%
The model gave 69% on Ursa — the map was taken by Ursa.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Ursa 82%HYPERSPIRIT 18%
The model gave 82% on Ursa — the map was taken by Ursa.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 59%
Series resultUrsa 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2