NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
70%50%
Ursa · 6 mapsedge Ursa +20%Oxuji · 0 maps
NukeOxuji pick
50%60%
Ursa · 4 mapsedge Oxuji +10%Oxuji · 1 map
MirageOxuji ban
63%50%
Ursa · 4 mapsedge Ursa +13%Oxuji · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%50%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +7%Oxuji · 0 maps
OverpassOxuji ban
43%50%
Ursa · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +7%Oxuji · 0 maps
DefaultUrsa ban
50%67%
Ursa · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +17%Oxuji · 2 maps
AncientUrsa ban
50%60%
Ursa · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +10%Oxuji · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Ancient
2. BanOxuji remove Overpass
3. PickUrsa take Dust2
4. PickOxuji take Nuke
5. BanOxuji remove Mirage
6. BanUrsa remove Default
DeciderInferno (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct17:19
Ursa 37%Oxuji 63%
The model gave 63% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Dust2prediction missed17:19
Ursa 72%Oxuji 28%
The model gave 72% on Ursa — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 69%
Series resultOxuji 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2