NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ursa#88 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RUSTEC#124 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Ursa pick
55%36%
Ursa · 18 mapsedge Ursa +19%RUSTEC · 7 maps
NukeRUSTEC ban
38%43%
Ursa · 12 mapsedge RUSTEC +5%RUSTEC · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
46%63%
Ursa · 9 mapsedge RUSTEC +17%RUSTEC · 4 maps
InfernoUrsa ban
31%67%
Ursa · 9 mapsedge RUSTEC +36%RUSTEC · 2 maps
OverpassUrsa ban
33%50%
Ursa · 5 mapsedge RUSTEC +17%RUSTEC · 2 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
50%40%
Ursa · 2 mapsedge Ursa +10%RUSTEC · 1 map
DefaultRUSTEC pick
50%50%
Ursa · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RUSTEC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanUrsa remove Overpass
2. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
3. PickUrsa take Dust2
4. PickRUSTEC take Default
5. BanRUSTEC remove Nuke
6. BanUrsa remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (46% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed19:16
Ursa 31%RUSTEC 69%
The model gave 69% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by Ursa.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Ursa 70%RUSTEC 30%
The model gave 70% on Ursa — the map was taken by RUSTEC.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
Ursa 18%RUSTEC 82%
The model gave 82% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteUrsa · 54%
Series resultRUSTEC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3