Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Vaelloss 0:2series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OG#203 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
OverpassOG pick
50%60%
Vael · 0 mapsedge OG +10%OG · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%63%
Vael · 1 mapedge OG +23%OG · 4 maps
NukeOG ban
50%44%
Vael · 0 mapsedge Vael +6%OG · 5 maps
MirageVael pick
60%43%
Vael · 1 mapedge Vael +17%OG · 3 maps
AncientOG ban
40%50%
Vael · 1 mapedge OG +10%OG · 2 maps
InfernoVael ban
60%67%
Vael · 1 mapedge OG +7%OG · 2 maps
CacheVael ban
50%33%
Vael · 0 mapsedge Vael +17%OG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVael remove Cache
2. BanOG remove Ancient
3. PickVael take Mirage
4. PickOG take Overpass
5. BanOG remove Nuke
6. BanVael remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (40% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct4:13
Vael 43%OG 57%
The model gave 57% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Vael 26%OG 74%
The model gave 74% on OG — the map was taken by OG.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 81%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2