Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vasco#232 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Isurus#186 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
40%53%
Vasco · 6 mapsedge Isurus +13%Isurus · 13 maps
InfernoVasco pick
50%44%
Vasco · 6 mapsedge Vasco +6%Isurus · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
44%60%
Vasco · 5 mapsedge Isurus +16%Isurus · 6 maps
AncientIsurus ban
67%55%
Vasco · 2 mapsedge Vasco +12%Isurus · 7 maps
DefaultVasco ban
30%67%
Vasco · 6 mapsedge Isurus +37%Isurus · 2 maps
NukeVasco ban
50%50%
Vasco · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 4 maps
OverpassIsurus ban
40%43%
Vasco · 1 mapnearly even -3%Isurus · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVasco remove Nuke
2. BanIsurus remove Ancient
3. PickVasco take Inferno
4. PickIsurus take Dust2
5. BanIsurus remove Overpass
6. BanVasco remove Default
DeciderMirage (44% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Vasco 18%Isurus 82%
The model gave 82% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 52%
Series resultIsurus 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1