Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Illyrians#144 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
50%50%
Vexar · 18 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 0 maps
MirageIllyrians pick
53%50%
Vexar · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Illyrians · 2 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
36%50%
Vexar · 10 mapsedge Illyrians +14%Illyrians · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
45%40%
Vexar · 7 mapsedge Vexar +5%Illyrians · 1 map
AnubisVexar ban
30%60%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Illyrians +30%Illyrians · 1 map
Dust2Vexar ban
50%40%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Vexar +10%Illyrians · 1 map
InfernoIllyrians ban
56%50%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Vexar +6%Illyrians · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. BanVexar remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (45% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Vexar 57%Illyrians 43%
The model gave 57% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Vexar 53%Illyrians 47%
The model gave 53% on Vexar — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Vexar 53%Illyrians 47%
The model gave 53% on Vexar — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 51%
Series resultVexar 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3