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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
40%37%
Vexar · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Inner Circle Academy · 15 maps
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
57%57%
Vexar · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Inner Circle Academy · 17 maps
AnubisVexar ban
43%57%
Vexar · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +14%Inner Circle Academy · 10 maps
MirageVexar ban
44%58%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +14%Inner Circle Academy · 8 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
38%46%
Vexar · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +8%Inner Circle Academy · 9 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%40%
Vexar · 6 mapsedge Vexar +20%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
56%40%
Vexar · 5 mapsedge Vexar +16%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVexar remove Mirage
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickVexar take Ancient
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanVexar remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (60% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Vexar 56%Inner Circle Academy 44%
The model gave 56% on Vexar — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction missed13:2
Vexar 47%Inner Circle Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Vexar.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
Vexar 36%Inner Circle Academy 64%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 76%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3