ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NuTorious#202 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageNuTorious pick
36%53%
Villainous · 10 mapsedge NuTorious +17%NuTorious · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
46%29%
Villainous · 9 mapsedge Villainous +17%NuTorious · 10 maps
AncientVillainous ban
25%29%
Villainous · 4 mapsnearly even -4%NuTorious · 10 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
53%33%
Villainous · 11 mapsedge Villainous +20%NuTorious · 2 maps
CacheVillainous ban
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NuTorious · 6 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
67%43%
Villainous · 2 mapsedge Villainous +24%NuTorious · 3 maps
Dust2NuTorious ban
50%50%
Villainous · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NuTorious · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Ancient
2. BanNuTorious remove Dust2
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickNuTorious take Mirage
5. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
6. BanVillainous remove Cache
DeciderInferno (46% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Villainous 30%NuTorious 70%
The model gave 70% on NuTorious — the map was taken by Villainous.
Anubisprediction correct13:4
Villainous 72%NuTorious 28%
The model gave 72% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteVillainous · 59%
Series resultVillainous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2