CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Villainous#198 in the world · win 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWanted Goons ban
36%33%
Villainous · 7 mapsnearly even +3%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%60%
Villainous · 10 mapsedge Wanted Goons +17%Wanted Goons · 1 map
AncientWanted Goons pick
25%44%
Villainous · 4 mapsedge Wanted Goons +19%Wanted Goons · 5 maps
AnubisVillainous pick
58%50%
Villainous · 8 mapsedge Villainous +8%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
Dust2Villainous ban
43%33%
Villainous · 3 mapsedge Villainous +10%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
50%50%
Villainous · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Wanted Goons · 0 maps
NukeVillainous ban
50%33%
Villainous · 0 mapsedge Villainous +17%Wanted Goons · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVillainous remove Dust2
2. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
3. PickVillainous take Anubis
4. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
5. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
6. BanVillainous remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Villainous 64%Wanted Goons 36%
The model gave 64% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Villainous 61%Wanted Goons 39%
The model gave 61% on Villainous — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Villainous 53%Wanted Goons 47%
The model gave 53% on Villainous — the map was taken by Villainous.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 58%
Series resultVillainous 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3