WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
53%44%
Virtus.pro · 15 mapsedge Virtus.pro +9%BAKS · 5 maps
MirageBAKS ban
56%50%
Virtus.pro · 12 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%BAKS · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
75%57%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%BAKS · 3 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
64%40%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +24%BAKS · 1 map
AncientBAKS pick
60%71%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge BAKS +11%BAKS · 3 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%50%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsnearly even +0%BAKS · 0 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%63%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsedge BAKS +13%BAKS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanBAKS remove Anubis
3. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
4. PickBAKS take Ancient
5. BanBAKS remove Mirage
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (75% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
Virtus.pro 47%BAKS 53%
The model gave 53% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Virtus.pro 72%BAKS 28%
The model gave 72% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Virtus.pro 56%BAKS 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3