Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BBL#48 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BBL ban
71%50%
Virtus.pro · 17 mapsedge Virtus.pro +21%BBL · 0 maps
NukeBBL pick
50%54%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsnearly even -4%BBL · 9 maps
MirageVirtus.pro pick
63%43%
Virtus.pro · 12 mapsedge Virtus.pro +20%BBL · 3 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
75%50%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +25%BBL · 4 maps
Cachepossible decider
58%38%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +20%BBL · 4 maps
AnubisBBL ban
42%40%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsnearly even +2%BBL · 1 map
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%56%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsedge BBL +6%BBL · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. PickVirtus.pro take Mirage
4. PickBBL take Nuke
5. BanBBL remove Anubis
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
DeciderCache (58% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct0:13
Virtus.pro 43%BBL 57%
The model gave 57% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Virtus.pro 71%BBL 29%
The model gave 71% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultBBL 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2