WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Black Phoenix#58 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
70%66%
Virtus.pro · 16 mapsnearly even +4%Black Phoenix · 69 maps
MirageBlack Phoenix ban
67%53%
Virtus.pro · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +14%Black Phoenix · 32 maps
AnubisBlack Phoenix ban
42%44%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Black Phoenix · 28 maps
NukeBlack Phoenix pick
42%52%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Black Phoenix +10%Black Phoenix · 27 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%46%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge Virtus.pro +11%Black Phoenix · 24 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%65%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsedge Black Phoenix +15%Black Phoenix · 22 maps
DefaultVirtus.pro ban
50%53%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Black Phoenix · 11 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanBlack Phoenix remove Anubis
3. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
4. PickBlack Phoenix take Nuke
5. BanBlack Phoenix remove Mirage
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Default
DeciderCache (57% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
Virtus.pro 37%Black Phoenix 63%
The model gave 63% on Black Phoenix — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
Virtus.pro 67%Black Phoenix 33%
The model gave 67% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlack Phoenix · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2