Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#65 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
fnatic#37 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
56%67%
Virtus.pro · 21 mapedge fnatic +11%fnatic · 8 maps
Miragefnatic ban
56%50%
Virtus.pro · 14 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%fnatic · 6 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
50%71%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge fnatic +21%fnatic · 10 maps
Ancientfnatic pick
67%71%
Virtus.pro · 5 mapsnearly even -4%fnatic · 10 maps
CacheVirtus.pro ban
63%67%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsnearly even -4%fnatic · 8 maps
Nukefnatic ban
60%50%
Virtus.pro · 11 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%fnatic · 0 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
58%40%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%fnatic · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
4. Pickfnatic take Ancient
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (56% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:16
Virtus.pro 26%fnatic 74%
The model gave 74% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Virtus.pro 42%fnatic 58%
The model gave 58% on fnatic — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Cacheprediction correct3:13
Virtus.pro 45%fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 57%
Series resultfnatic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3