European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · win 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
60%68%
Virtus.pro · 1 mapedge GenOne +8%GenOne · 27 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%58%
Virtus.pro · 1 mapnearly even +2%GenOne · 20 maps
AncientVirtus.pro pick
63%45%
Virtus.pro · 4 mapsedge Virtus.pro +18%GenOne · 16 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
67%38%
Virtus.pro · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +29%GenOne · 9 maps
AnubisVirtus.pro ban
40%64%
Virtus.pro · 1 mapedge GenOne +24%GenOne · 7 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%58%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsedge GenOne +8%GenOne · 8 maps
MirageGenOne ban
71%50%
Virtus.pro · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +21%GenOne · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Mirage
3. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (60% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:11
Virtus.pro 78%GenOne 22%
The model gave 78% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Virtus.pro 39%GenOne 61%
The model gave 61% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
Virtus.pro 28%GenOne 72%
The model gave 72% on GenOne — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 51%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3