Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.pro#56 in the world · win 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC#25 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro pick
64%65%
Virtus.pro · 21 mapnearly even -1%HEROIC · 13 maps
MirageHEROIC pick
57%69%
Virtus.pro · 17 mapsedge HEROIC +12%HEROIC · 9 maps
AncientVirtus.pro ban
70%65%
Virtus.pro · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +5%HEROIC · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%62%
Virtus.pro · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +5%HEROIC · 9 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
58%50%
Virtus.pro · 8 mapsedge Virtus.pro +8%HEROIC · 8 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%67%
Virtus.pro · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +17%HEROIC · 11 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
36%50%
Virtus.pro · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +14%HEROIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickVirtus.pro take Dust2
4. PickHEROIC take Mirage
5. BanHEROIC remove Cache
6. BanVirtus.pro remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (57% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Virtus.pro 53%HEROIC 47%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
Virtus.pro 52%HEROIC 48%
The model gave 52% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Virtus.pro 37%HEROIC 63%
The model gave 63% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 71%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3