ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitalem Aerem#180 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitalem Aerem pick
50%33%
Vitalem Aerem · 6 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +17%bLight blue · 2 maps
AncientVitalem Aerem ban
56%60%
Vitalem Aerem · 5 mapsnearly even -4%bLight blue · 1 map
InfernobLight blue ban
50%40%
Vitalem Aerem · 4 mapsedge Vitalem Aerem +10%bLight blue · 1 map
NukebLight blue pick
38%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 4 mapsedge bLight blue +12%bLight blue · 0 maps
AnubisbLight blue ban
50%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 2 mapsnearly even +0%bLight blue · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Vitalem Aerem · 1 mapedge Vitalem Aerem +10%bLight blue · 0 maps
MirageVitalem Aerem ban
50%60%
Vitalem Aerem · 0 mapsedge bLight blue +10%bLight blue · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitalem Aerem remove Mirage
2. BanbLight blue remove Anubis
3. PickVitalem Aerem take Dust2
4. PickbLight blue take Nuke
5. BanbLight blue remove Inferno
6. BanVitalem Aerem remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Vitalem Aerem 37%bLight blue 63%
The model gave 63% on bLight blue — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Vitalem Aerem 48%bLight blue 52%
The model gave 52% on bLight blue — the map was taken by Vitalem Aerem.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitalem Aerem · 67%
Series resultVitalem Aerem 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2