Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
40%65%
Vitality · 6 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 13 maps
MirageVitality ban
57%67%
Vitality · 3 mapsedge Spirit +10%Spirit · 11 maps
AnubisVitality ban
29%70%
Vitality · 3 mapsedge Spirit +41%Spirit · 6 maps
NukeSpirit ban
63%57%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge Vitality +6%Spirit · 3 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
67%50%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge Vitality +17%Spirit · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%43%
Vitality · 1 mapedge Vitality +17%Spirit · 3 maps
OverpassVitality pick
67%33%
Vitality · 2 mapsedge Vitality +34%Spirit · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Anubis
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickVitality take Overpass
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanVitality remove Mirage
DeciderCache (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
Vitality 13%Spirit 87%
The model gave 87% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
Vitality 58%Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
Vitality 40%Spirit 60%
The model gave 60% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 62%
Series resultSpirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3