ESL Challenger League Season 51 North America Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#92 in the world · win 1:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Chicken Coop#183 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Chicken Coop ban
50%43%
Voca · 2 mapsedge Voca +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
OverpassVoca pick
43%50%
Voca · 3 mapsedge Chicken Coop +7%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
NukeChicken Coop pick
50%43%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Voca +7%Chicken Coop · 3 maps
AncientVoca ban
60%60%
Voca · 1 mapnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
50%67%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Chicken Coop · 2 maps
MirageChicken Coop ban
40%50%
Voca · 1 mapedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanChicken Coop remove Mirage
3. PickVoca take Overpass
4. PickChicken Coop take Nuke
5. BanChicken Coop remove Dust2
6. BanVoca remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Voca 50%Chicken Coop 50%
The model gave 50% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 68%
Series resultVoca 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1