ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Marsborne#82 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
60%69%
Voca · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +9%Marsborne · 9 maps
MirageVoca pick
75%60%
Voca · 4 mapsedge Voca +15%Marsborne · 6 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
78%57%
Voca · 5 mapsedge Voca +21%Marsborne · 3 maps
InfernoVoca ban
50%73%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Marsborne +23%Marsborne · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%40%
Voca · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Marsborne · 1 map
AnubisVoca ban
40%57%
Voca · 1 mapedge Marsborne +17%Marsborne · 3 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%50%
Voca · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Marsborne · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
3. PickVoca take Mirage
4. PickMarsborne take Ancient
5. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
6. BanVoca remove Anubis
DeciderCache (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Voca 37%Marsborne 63%
The model gave 63% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Voca.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Voca 75%Marsborne 25%
The model gave 75% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 52%
Series resultVoca 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2