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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Voca#67 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
67%58%
Voca · 5 mapsedge Voca +9%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
AncientVoca pick
60%40%
Voca · 6 mapsedge Voca +20%Overtake Sector · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
67%67%
Voca · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
CacheVoca ban
44%60%
Voca · 5 mapsedge Overtake Sector +16%Overtake Sector · 1 map
InfernoVoca ban
50%33%
Voca · 0 mapsedge Voca +17%Overtake Sector · 5 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
40%50%
Voca · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Voca · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVoca remove Inferno
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickVoca take Ancient
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
6. BanVoca remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
Voca 43%Overtake Sector 57%
The model gave 57% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
Voca 47%Overtake Sector 53%
The model gave 53% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Voca.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
Voca 69%Overtake Sector 31%
The model gave 69% on Voca — the map was taken by Voca.
Model check result
Model favoriteVoca · 68%
Series resultVoca 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3