NODWIN Clutch Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Defaultpossible decider
50%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 0 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%50%
Walczaki · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 2 maps
NukeNemiga ban
67%50%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Nemiga · 0 maps
OverpassNemiga pick
50%67%
Walczaki · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +17%Nemiga · 2 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
50%60%
Walczaki · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +10%Nemiga · 1 map
AnubisNemiga ban
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%Nemiga · 0 maps
InfernoWalczaki pick
60%50%
Walczaki · 1 mapedge Walczaki +10%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
2. BanNemiga remove Nuke
3. PickWalczaki take Inferno
4. PickNemiga take Overpass
5. BanNemiga remove Anubis
6. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Walczaki 69%Nemiga 31%
The model gave 69% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Walczaki 37%Nemiga 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
Walczaki 60%Nemiga 40%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 56%
Series resultNemiga 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3