BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga#22 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
71%71%
Walczaki · 13 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 3 maps
AncientWalczaki ban
64%43%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Nemiga · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
73%50%
Walczaki · 7 mapsedge Walczaki +23%Nemiga · 2 maps
MirageNemiga ban
67%50%
Walczaki · 5 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Nemiga · 4 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%78%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge Nemiga +45%Nemiga · 5 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%50%
Walczaki · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Nemiga · 0 maps
DefaultNemiga pick
57%50%
Walczaki · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Nemiga · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanNemiga remove Inferno
3. PickWalczaki take Nuke
4. PickNemiga take Default
5. BanNemiga remove Mirage
6. BanWalczaki remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (73% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct14:16
Walczaki 47%Nemiga 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Walczaki 52%Nemiga 48%
The model gave 52% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Walczaki 73%Nemiga 27%
The model gave 73% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 62%
Series resultWalczaki 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3