FRAG Midwest St. Louis 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
58%60%
Wanted Goons · 8 mapsnearly even -2%For Fun · 1 map
Dust2possible decider
33%33%
Wanted Goons · 5 mapsnearly even +0%For Fun · 2 maps
NukeFor Fun pick
33%50%
Wanted Goons · 5 mapsedge For Fun +17%For Fun · 2 maps
MirageWanted Goons ban
38%60%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge For Fun +22%For Fun · 1 map
InfernoWanted Goons ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 2 maps
OverpassFor Fun ban
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%For Fun · 0 maps
AnubisFor Fun ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge For Fun +10%For Fun · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanFor Fun remove Anubis
3. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
4. PickFor Fun take Nuke
5. BanFor Fun remove Overpass
6. BanWanted Goons remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (33% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Wanted Goons 31%For Fun 69%
The model gave 69% on For Fun — the map was taken by For Fun.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
Wanted Goons 51%For Fun 49%
The model gave 51% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by For Fun.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 55%
Series resultFor Fun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2