ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
40%59%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +19%Iowa Stormboar · 13 maps
Dust2possible decider
43%62%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +19%Iowa Stormboar · 9 maps
AncientWanted Goons ban
30%63%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +33%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
NukeIowa Stormboar ban
29%36%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Iowa Stormboar · 7 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
60%30%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Wanted Goons +30%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AnubisWanted Goons pick
43%29%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +14%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
CacheWanted Goons ban
40%56%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +16%Iowa Stormboar · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Cache
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickWanted Goons take Anubis
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Nuke
6. BanWanted Goons remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (43% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Wanted Goons 22%Iowa Stormboar 78%
The model gave 78% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Wanted Goons 29%Iowa Stormboar 71%
The model gave 71% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Wanted Goons 32%Iowa Stormboar 68%
The model gave 68% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 70%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3