ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Olympus#190 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
50%60%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsedge Olympus +10%Olympus · 1 map
Nukepossible decider
40%60%
Wanted Goons · 6 mapsedge Olympus +20%Olympus · 1 map
MirageOlympus pick
38%50%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge Olympus +12%Olympus · 0 maps
Dust2Olympus ban
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Olympus · 0 maps
OverpassOlympus ban
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%Olympus · 0 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
33%50%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Olympus +17%Olympus · 0 maps
AnubisWanted Goons ban
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Olympus +10%Olympus · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanOlympus remove Overpass
3. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
4. PickOlympus take Mirage
5. BanOlympus remove Dust2
6. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
Wanted Goons 37%Olympus 63%
The model gave 63% on Olympus — the map was taken by Olympus.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Wanted Goons 60%Olympus 40%
The model gave 60% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Olympus.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 55%
Series resultOlympus 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2