NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Wanted Goons pick
57%40%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +17%Overtake Sector · 1 map
NukeOvertake Sector ban
38%50%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +12%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
50%40%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Wanted Goons +10%Overtake Sector · 1 map
InfernoWanted Goons ban
33%40%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
33%40%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 1 map
AnubisWanted Goons ban
50%60%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 1 map
DefaultOvertake Sector pick
40%50%
Wanted Goons · 1 mapedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickWanted Goons take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Default
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Wanted Goons 40%Overtake Sector 60%
The model gave 60% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Wanted Goons 63%Overtake Sector 37%
The model gave 63% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Overpassprediction missed7:13
Wanted Goons 50%Overtake Sector 50%
The model gave 50% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteWanted Goons · 55%
Series resultOvertake Sector 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3