ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT Academy#110 in the world · win 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
6666#80 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT Academy pick
53%55%
WBT Academy · 11 mapsnearly even -2%6666 · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
70%50%
WBT Academy · 6 mapsedge WBT Academy +20%6666 · 4 maps
Ancient6666 pick
57%60%
WBT Academy · 3 mapsnearly even -3%6666 · 6 maps
InfernoWBT Academy ban
50%15%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge WBT Academy +35%6666 · 9 maps
Nuke6666 ban
36%33%
WBT Academy · 7 mapsnearly even +3%6666 · 2 maps
MirageWBT Academy ban
44%57%
WBT Academy · 5 mapsedge 6666 +13%6666 · 3 maps
Default6666 ban
60%50%
WBT Academy · 1 mapedge WBT Academy +10%6666 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT Academy remove Inferno
2. Ban6666 remove Nuke
3. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
4. Pick6666 take Ancient
5. Ban6666 remove Default
6. BanWBT Academy remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (70% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct7:13
WBT Academy 35%6666 65%
The model gave 65% on 6666 — the map was taken by 6666.
Anubisprediction correct16:13
WBT Academy 52%6666 48%
The model gave 52% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
WBT Academy 47%6666 53%
The model gave 53% on 6666 — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Model check result
Model favorite6666 · 55%
Series resultWBT Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3