ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT Academy#120 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OLDBOYS PLwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWBT Academy ban
50%71%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +21%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
AnubisOLDBOYS PL ban
50%50%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
AncientOLDBOYS PL pick
50%60%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
DefaultWBT Academy ban
50%60%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Dust2WBT Academy pick
50%40%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge WBT Academy +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
InfernoOLDBOYS PL ban
50%60%
WBT Academy · 0 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +10%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT Academy remove Nuke
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Inferno
3. PickWBT Academy take Dust2
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Ancient
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Anubis
6. BanWBT Academy remove Default
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
WBT Academy 31%OLDBOYS PL 69%
The model gave 69% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Anubisprediction correct17:19
WBT Academy 47%OLDBOYS PL 53%
The model gave 53% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT Academy · 66%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2