ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#66 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BERG#210 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT pick
53%43%
WBT · 13 mapsedge WBT +10%BERG · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
47%44%
WBT · 11 mapsnearly even +3%BERG · 5 maps
AncientBERG ban
58%38%
WBT · 8 mapsedge WBT +20%BERG · 4 maps
Dust2BERG ban
57%50%
WBT · 10 mapsedge WBT +7%BERG · 0 maps
NukeBERG pick
50%44%
WBT · 4 mapsedge WBT +6%BERG · 5 maps
CacheWBT ban
43%50%
WBT · 3 mapsedge BERG +7%BERG · 0 maps
InfernoWBT ban
60%50%
WBT · 1 mapedge WBT +10%BERG · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanBERG remove Dust2
3. PickWBT take Anubis
4. PickBERG take Nuke
5. BanBERG remove Ancient
6. BanWBT remove Cache
DeciderMirage (47% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
WBT 63%BERG 37%
The model gave 63% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
WBT 67%BERG 33%
The model gave 67% on WBT — the map was taken by BERG.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
WBT 56%BERG 44%
The model gave 56% on WBT — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 66%
Series resultWBT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3