Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
59%59%
WBT · 13 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire ban
63%67%
WBT · 15 mapsnearly even -4%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
AnubisWBT pick
52%60%
WBT · 17 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
MirageWBT ban
50%53%
WBT · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
CacheEternal Fire pick
33%53%
WBT · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +20%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
InfernoWBT ban
50%57%
WBT · 2 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 10 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
58%50%
WBT · 8 mapsedge WBT +8%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickWBT take Anubis
4. PickEternal Fire take Cache
5. BanEternal Fire remove Dust2
6. BanWBT remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (59% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
WBT 28%Eternal Fire 72%
The model gave 72% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Anubisprediction correct17:19
WBT 45%Eternal Fire 55%
The model gave 55% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 65%
Series resultEternal Fire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2