Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#108 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PURE#126 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisPURE ban
52%60%
WBT · 17 mapsedge PURE +8%PURE · 1 map
AncientWBT ban
56%56%
WBT · 12 mapsnearly even +0%PURE · 5 maps
Dust2WBT pick
59%57%
WBT · 13 mapsnearly even +2%PURE · 3 maps
MiragePURE ban
50%33%
WBT · 8 mapsedge WBT +17%PURE · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%56%
WBT · 8 mapsnearly even +2%PURE · 5 maps
CachePURE pick
31%57%
WBT · 9 mapsedge PURE +26%PURE · 3 maps
InfernoWBT ban
50%70%
WBT · 2 mapsedge PURE +20%PURE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanPURE remove Anubis
3. PickWBT take Dust2
4. PickPURE take Cache
5. BanPURE remove Mirage
6. BanWBT remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (58% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
WBT 48%PURE 52%
The model gave 52% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
WBT 45%PURE 55%
The model gave 55% on PURE — the map was taken by PURE.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 53%
Series resultPURE 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2