Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
WBT#66 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW#69 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWBT pick
56%43%
WBT · 14 mapsedge WBT +13%SAW · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%38%
WBT · 12 mapsedge WBT +12%SAW · 4 maps
AncientSAW ban
64%44%
WBT · 10 mapsedge WBT +20%SAW · 5 maps
MirageWBT ban
43%67%
WBT · 10 mapsedge SAW +24%SAW · 2 maps
NukeSAW pick
64%67%
WBT · 7 mapsnearly even -3%SAW · 2 maps
CacheSAW ban
38%50%
WBT · 4 mapsedge SAW +12%SAW · 2 maps
InfernoWBT ban
60%67%
WBT · 1 mapedge SAW +7%SAW · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWBT remove Inferno
2. BanSAW remove Cache
3. PickWBT take Anubis
4. PickSAW take Nuke
5. BanSAW remove Ancient
6. BanWBT remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
WBT 35%SAW 65%
The model gave 65% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Ancientprediction missed12:16
WBT 72%SAW 28%
The model gave 72% on WBT — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 60%
Series resultSAW 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2