FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#47 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BESTIA#67 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageWildcard ban
40%56%
Wildcard · 11 mapsedge BESTIA +16%BESTIA · 14 maps
InfernoWildcard pick
50%77%
Wildcard · 12 mapsedge BESTIA +27%BESTIA · 9 maps
Dust2BESTIA pick
57%60%
Wildcard · 3 mapsnearly even -3%BESTIA · 16 maps
NukeBESTIA ban
62%50%
Wildcard · 9 mapsedge Wildcard +12%BESTIA · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%42%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge Wildcard +14%BESTIA · 8 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BESTIA · 8 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%BESTIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
3. PickWildcard take Inferno
4. PickBESTIA take Dust2
5. BanBESTIA remove Nuke
6. BanWildcard remove Mirage
DeciderCache (56% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
Wildcard 21%BESTIA 79%
The model gave 79% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
Wildcard 64%BESTIA 36%
The model gave 64% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
Wildcard 35%BESTIA 65%
The model gave 65% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 58%
Series resultBESTIA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3