FRAG University 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · win 13:5series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 13:5
LDLast Dance USloss 5:13
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
47%50%
Wildcard · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Last Dance US · 0 maps
MirageWildcard ban
31%50%
Wildcard · 9 mapsedge Last Dance US +19%Last Dance US · 0 maps
NukeLast Dance US ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Last Dance US · 0 maps
Dust2Wildcard ban
44%50%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge Last Dance US +6%Last Dance US · 0 maps
CacheLast Dance US ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Last Dance US · 0 maps
AnubisWildcard ban
40%50%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Last Dance US +10%Last Dance US · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Anubis
2. BanLast Dance US remove Nuke
3. BanWildcard remove Mirage
4. BanLast Dance US remove Cache
5. BanWildcard remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (47% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Wildcard 44%Last Dance US 56%
The model gave 56% on Last Dance US — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 83%
Series resultWildcard 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1