FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NT#92 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWildcard pick
47%60%
Wildcard · 11 mapsedge NT +13%NT · 1 map
MirageNT pick
40%50%
Wildcard · 6 mapsedge NT +10%NT · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%56%
Wildcard · 4 mapsedge NT +6%NT · 5 maps
CacheWildcard ban
50%50%
Wildcard · 4 mapsnearly even +0%NT · 4 maps
NukeNT ban
40%50%
Wildcard · 6 mapsedge NT +10%NT · 2 maps
AnubisNT ban
40%29%
Wildcard · 1 mapedge Wildcard +11%NT · 3 maps
AncientWildcard ban
50%40%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +10%NT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Ancient
2. BanNT remove Anubis
3. PickWildcard take Inferno
4. PickNT take Mirage
5. BanNT remove Nuke
6. BanWildcard remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Wildcard 37%NT 63%
The model gave 63% on NT — the map was taken by NT.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
Wildcard 43%NT 57%
The model gave 57% on NT — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Wildcard 44%NT 56%
The model gave 56% on NT — the map was taken by NT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 73%
Series resultNT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3