Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard#46 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukepaiN pick
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 12 maps
InfernopaiN ban
44%50%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge paiN +6%paiN · 6 maps
Dust2Wildcard pick
44%56%
Wildcard · 5 mapsedge paiN +12%paiN · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Wildcard · 2 mapsnearly even +0%paiN · 4 maps
OverpassWildcard ban
50%56%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge paiN +6%paiN · 5 maps
AnubisWildcard ban
50%57%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge paiN +7%paiN · 3 maps
CachepaiN ban
50%29%
Wildcard · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +21%paiN · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWildcard remove Anubis
2. BanpaiN remove Cache
3. PickWildcard take Dust2
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Inferno
6. BanWildcard remove Overpass
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:12
Wildcard 47%paiN 53%
The model gave 53% on paiN — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Wildcard 47%paiN 53%
The model gave 53% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
Wildcard 50%paiN 50%
The model gave 50% on Wildcard — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 74%
Series resultpaiN 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3