Hero Esports Asian Champions League 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nas#203 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNas pick
40%60%
Wings of Freedom · 1 mapedge Nas +20%Nas · 1 map
NukeWings of Freedom pick
60%60%
Wings of Freedom · 1 mapnearly even +0%Nas · 1 map
Dust2Nas ban
40%50%
Wings of Freedom · 1 mapedge Nas +10%Nas · 0 maps
InfernoWings of Freedom ban
50%40%
Wings of Freedom · 0 mapsedge Wings of Freedom +10%Nas · 1 map
MirageNas ban
60%50%
Wings of Freedom · 1 mapedge Wings of Freedom +10%Nas · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWings of Freedom remove Inferno
2. BanNas remove Mirage
3. PickWings of Freedom take Nuke
4. PickNas take Ancient
5. BanNas remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
Wings of Freedom 47%Nas 53%
The model gave 53% on Nas — the map was taken by Wings of Freedom.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Wings of Freedom 63%Nas 37%
The model gave 63% on Wings of Freedom — the map was taken by Wings of Freedom.
Model check result
Model favoriteNas · 50%
Series resultWings of Freedom 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2