ESEA Season 58 North America Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Without a Roof#81 in the world · win 2:1series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SportsBetExpert#69 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof pick
69%71%
Without a Roof · 12 mapsnearly even -2%SportsBetExpert · 13 maps
MirageSportsBetExpert pick
65%88%
Without a Roof · 13 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +23%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
58%75%
Without a Roof · 8 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +17%SportsBetExpert · 12 maps
Dust2SportsBetExpert ban
40%50%
Without a Roof · 6 mapsedge SportsBetExpert +10%SportsBetExpert · 10 maps
AncientSportsBetExpert ban
50%50%
Without a Roof · 10 mapsnearly even +0%SportsBetExpert · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%45%
Without a Roof · 2 mapsedge Without a Roof +5%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
60%64%
Without a Roof · 1 mapnearly even -4%SportsBetExpert · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
2. BanSportsBetExpert remove Ancient
3. PickWithout a Roof take Inferno
4. PickSportsBetExpert take Mirage
5. BanSportsBetExpert remove Dust2
6. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
DeciderCache (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Without a Roof 51%SportsBetExpert 49%
The model gave 51% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by SportsBetExpert.
Mirageprediction missed16:14
Without a Roof 19%SportsBetExpert 81%
The model gave 81% on SportsBetExpert — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
Without a Roof 55%SportsBetExpert 45%
The model gave 55% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteSportsBetExpert · 69%
Series resultWithout a Roof 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3